Mkt Analysis of Key BKD MSAs Shows Solid Occupancy, Demand, Rent, Low Inventory

Research evidence excerpt

Mkt Analysis of Key BKD MSAs Shows Solid Occupancy, Demand, Rent, Low Inventory

Intact, but Not Uniform Across Markets. Occupancy trends show a clear Austin, TX 1,246 11

post-COVID recovery across all the MSAs, though the pace remains market-dependent and tied Chicago,Kansas City,IL MO 1,088893 67

largely to prior supply intensity. Stronger recoveries are evident in markets that have already .Source: NIC MAP

digested supply (e.g., Denver, Dallas, Houston), whereas coastal and slower-growth markets (e.g., Per data captured in NIC Map

LA, Chicago) lag.

Pricing Re-Accelerating as Fundamentals Improve. Rent growth trends broadly mirror occupancy

improvement, with most markets showing positive growth. The recovery since the pandemic has

been strongest in Sunbelt markets, where demand elasticity and demographic tailwinds support

more aggressive pricing. That said, the re-emergence of positive rent growth across all MSAs

underscores an improving supply-demand balance for operators and provides incremental support

for same-store NOI growth going forward.

Clear Divergence Between High-Growth and Mature Markets. The data highlights a consistent

bifurcation between higher-growth Sunbelt MSAs (TX, AZ, NC) and more mature or slower-growth

markets (Midwest and coastal). Sunbelt markets exhibit higher construction volatility and stronger

rent growth, but also greater cyclicality, while Midwest/coastal markets show more stable but

slower-moving fundamentals. Brian Tanquilut * | Equity Analyst

+1 (615) 963-8338 | btanquilut@jefferies.com

Demographic Tailwinds Supporting Demand Growth. We looked at demographics across the 10

Meghan Holtz * | Equity AssociateMSAs, which highlighted above-average growth in both 65-74 and 75+ cohorts, led by Sunbelt