Consumer Credit Activity Tracker

Research evidence excerpt

Consumer Credit Activity Tracker

M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H

Economic Sentiment / Labor Mortgage Credit Card Auto Activity Conditions

Sentiment / Conditions: 6 Month Summary

Consumer Credit Indicators

December January February March April May Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26

Sentiment / Conditions Monthly Read Y/Y ▲

SLOOS - Less Willing to Lend (6.9%) (5.5%) (3.4%)

SLOOS - Cons. Loans Tightening vs. Easing 0.0% 2.0% 5.5%

Consumer Sentiment Index 53 56 57 53 50 45 (28.5%) (21.3%) (12.5%) (6.5%) (4.6%) (14.2%)

Current Sentiment 50 55 57 56 53 46 (32.9%) (26.2%) (13.9%) (12.5%) (12.2%) (22.2%)

Expectations 55 57 57 52 48 44 (25.5%) (18.0%) (11.6%) (1.7%) 1.7% (7.9%)

Inflation Expects - Top 33% Income 3.9% 3.4% 3.2% 3.4% 4.5% 4.2% 110bps 20bps -30bps -130bps -90bps -260bps

Inflation Expects - Mid 33% Income 3.6% 4.3% 3.3% 3.8% 4.6% 4.9% 100bps 130bps -130bps -100bps -220bps -80bps

Inflation Expects - Bottom 33% Income 4.7% 4.8% 4.4% 4.7% 5.4% 5.5% 180bps 60bps 0bps -320bps -450bps -360bps

Consumer Confidence Index 94 89 91 92 94 93 (14.0%) (15.5%) (9.1%) (1.8%) 9.5% (5.4%)

Current Confidence 124 122 119 124 124 121 (14.2%) (12.9%) (14.0%) (7.7%) (5.1%) (10.6%)

Expectations 75 67 73 71 73 74 (13.8%) (18.2%) (2.9%) 6.1% 32.5% 1.1%

U Mich Cons. Tighter Credit News 6M Avg 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.7% 1.0% 1.2% -133bps -117bps -100bps -83bps -67bps -33bps

Chicago Fed NFCI (0.52) (0.54) (0.52) (0.44) (0.43) (0.46) 1bps -2bps -2bps 0bps -3bps -1bps

Kansas City Financial Stress Index (0.71) (0.66) (0.57) (0.59) (0.71) (0.88) 5bps 12bps 23bps -3bps -81bps -37bps

M/M ▲

Consumer Sentiment Index 3.7% 6.6% 0.4% (5.8%) (6.6%) (10.0%)

Current Sentiment (1.4%) 9.9% 2.2% (1.4%) (5.9%) (12.8%)

Expectations 7.1% 4.4% (0.7%) (8.7%) (7.0%) (8.3%)