AGF Q2 Review: Buy AGF, Get Capital Partners for Free

Research evidence excerpt

AGF Q2 Review: Buy AGF, Get Capital Partners for Free

nt. Revenue growth remains resilient

despite management fee rate compression, as AUM expansion, both organic (ETFs and SMAs) and

Figure 1 - We Estimate That the Market

inorganic (NHC), more than offsets margin pressure. At the same time, the company continues Attritbutes No Value to the Alternative Asset

to execute accretive acquisitions funded through internally generated cash flow, avoiding equity Management Platform...

dilution while maintaining minimal financial leverage. Total AGF earnings $159,0662027E per$2.48share

LESS: Capital Partners earnings ($66,919) ($1.04)

P/E 10.0x 10.0xValuation re-rating story remains intact. We lowered NHC's earnings contribution through 2026 TraditionalTargetTraditional asset management earnings $92,147 $1.44 asset manager intrinsic value $921,473 $14.38

given its break even FRE, and we don't forecast performance fees given the unpredictability. Long-termAGF ex. CapitalinvestmentsPartners(@15% discount) $1,276,613$355,139 $19.92$5.54

That said, we accelerated NHC's AUM growth to 10% through 2028 (from 5%) with positive AGF Share price $19.99

operating leverage. As a result, our EPS forecast is mostly unchanged through 2027. With estimates AGFAGF SharesMarket o/scap $1,281,16964,090 $19.99

unchanged, our target price is intact at $24, reflecting an 10.0x multiple to our FY2027 adjusted . LESS:CapitalAGFpartnersex. CapitalimpliedPartnersvalue ($1,276,613)$4,556 ($19.92)$0.07

EPS forecast of $2.43. Our target price implies an 4.9x EV/EBITDA multiple against our recurring Source: Company reports; FactSet; Jefferies.

Figure 2 - ... or Long-Term Investments at

FY2027 EBITDA forecast. Negative $40M vs. Book Value of $418M

2027E per share

Total AGF earnings $159,066 $2.48