The Daily Build: Thoughts on Today‘s Move

Research evidence excerpt

The Daily Build: Thoughts on Today‘s Move

The Daily Build

24 June 2026 Citi Research

Finished spec inventory, which in our view poses the greatest risk to Builder

pricing power, remains near multi-year highs. May finished spec inventories

(Census Bureau completed new homes for sale), on a months of supply basis were

~4.4 months (spec inventories divided by spec sales), up +15% Y/Y, and slightly

above pre-pandemic levels of ~4.0 months (Figure 6). The months of supply of

homes for sale that are under construction remains elevated at ~16 months (under

construction homes for sale divided by homes sold under construction) vs ~10

months pre-pandemic. An elevated supply of these homes isn’t as likely to

immediately drive price discounting as would a high supply of completed spec

homes. That said, absent a demand acceleration, Builders may have to continue

discounting spec inventory in order to prevent overbuilding as these homes reach

completion. With elevated mortgage rates pressuring consumer affordability and

confidence in 2H, we remain Neutral on the group.

Figure 5. Completed New Homes for Sale (SAAR, Thous.) Figure 6. Months of Supply of Completed New Homes

250 5 20

4 16

200 14

3 12

150 10

2 8

100 1 4

50 0 0

0 MonthsPre-COVIDof SupplyLevel of Completed New Homes (Relative to Completed New Home Sales)

Months of Supply of Under Construction New Homes (Relative to Under Construction New Home Sales) [RHS]

Pre-COVID Level [RHS]

© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission. © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.

Source: Citi Research, Bureau of the Census, Haver Analytics Source: Citi Research, Bureau of the Census, Haver Analytics

New home sales are historically subject to large revisions.