Energy Market Letter: Volume VII

Research evidence excerpt

Energy Market Letter: Volume VII

India | Energy EquityJuneResearch24, 2026

Exhibit 1 - Coverage universe stockEnergy Market Letter: Volume VII

performance since start of ME conflict

Daily ships through Hormuz have jumped to mid-20s recently from high 5% 3% Stock performance since 27th Feb

single digits last week. Freight rates are up 8% w/w and could take -5%0% -2% -2%

-6% -6%

-10%some time to normalize. GRMs declined w/w but remain elevated. OMCs' -11% -15%

-13% -14%

-20% -18%marketing losses have narrowed after the sharp fall in crude. Petchem

(I)spreads are up 135% since the start of the conflict, aiding Reliance's O2C -25% -22% GAIL MAHGL IGL Reliance HPCL PLNG GUJGA ONGC BPCL IOCL

Source: Bloomberg, Jefferiesprofitability. BPCL and IOCL are beneficiaries of lower crude and elevated .

GRMs. Exhibit 2 - Number of vessels crossing Strait

of Hormuz

Strait of Hormuz shipments picking up: Commercial vessel movement has jumped 6x w/w 180 Hormuz commercial vessel crossings (24hr vessel count)

on average in the past seven days (Ex 2) and has reached mid-20s against pre-conflict level 150

of 120. About 800mn bbl of crude inventories have been drawn down since the start of the 12090

conflict. 6030

Freight rates remain elevated: Freight rates increased 8% w/w and are up ~3x since the start 1-Jan-26 16-Jan-26 31-Jan-26 15-Feb-26 2-Mar-26 17-Mar-26 1-Apr-26 16-Apr-26 1-May-26 16-May-26 31-May-26 15-Jun-26of the conflict (Ex 6). Freight rates could remain elevated in the near term, as supply chains .

Source: Bloomberg, Jefferies

are expected to take time to normalize.

Exhibit 3 - Average petchem spreads trend

Refining margins decline w/w but still elevated: Singapore GRMs are US$ 14/bbl over the Petchem margins (US$/tn)

1050past week compared to US$5/bbl at end-February.