Indonesian Regulation: Updated Thoughts

Research evidence excerpt

Indonesian Regulation: Updated Thoughts

Update

June 24, 2026 02:37 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+MASEAN Internet | Asia Pacific Divya Gangahar Kothiyal

Equity Analyst

Indonesian Regulation: Updated Divya.Gangahar@morganstanley.comEileen Lin +65 6834-6438

Research Associate

Eileen.Lin@morganstanley.com +65 6834-5060

Thoughts Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

Gary Yu

Key Takeaways EquityGary.Yu@morganstanley.comAnalyst +852 2848-6918

Grab and GoTo met with leaders of Indonesia's House of Representatives and

announced a cut in 2W ride-hailing driver commissions to 8%, effective July 1.

The current stipulated commission ceiling is at 20%, but we estimate Grab and

GoTo's current effective take rates at ~13-15%, including incentives.

The relative impact on GoTo is likely to be higher. Indonesian 2W business ASEAN Internet

Asia Pacific

contributes ~50% of GoTo's Mobility GMV vs. 6% contribution for Grab. Industry View In-Line

We expect some impact on mobility margin from this but believe overall 2026 Other recent reports:

EBITDA guidance for both companies is largely unaffected. Grab Holdings Ltd: Resilient Growth amid

While regulatory risks remain pertinent in Indonesia, we think this may be Volatility (5 May 2026)

something of a clearing event – there was concern that 4W may also get Grab Holdings Ltd: Indonesian regulation a

included. negative surprise (1 May 2026)

Financial impact: 2W mobility margins for both companies are likely to taper

because of this. However, given the relatively lower margin for this segment, we

expect the overall/consolidated impact on EBITDA to be manageable. We also

expect some rationalization in incentives to better manage profitability.

For Grab, we expect the impact on our 2026 adjusted EBITDA forecast to be ~1%,