Predictions from Meta?

Research evidence excerpt

Predictions from Meta?

USA | Gaming

Flutter Entertainment EquityJuneResearch24, 2026

FIRST VIEWPredictions from Meta?

Conclusion RATING BUY

Investors will likely perceive Meta entering prediction markets as increased PRICE $97.85^

competition and therefore a negative. It's not that straightforward, in our PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $210.00 | +115%

view. 52W HIGH-LOW $313.69 - $91.52

FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 80.0% | 282.83

We see regulatory, product and data moats that will protect online sports MARKET CAP $17.4B

betting operators in the US and internationally. TICKER FLUT

^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

Detail noted.

Background. The NYTimes has reported Meta will launch a prediction

market app, named Arena. The article comments the app would operate

separately from Meta’s social networking apps and not initially offer real

money wagering. Meta has not commented.

Some points to consider:

Evolving PM narrative: We sense the prediction markets narrative is evolving, with the•

initial perception of a structural threat to online sports betting steadily morphing into

prediction markets being incremental. We see prediction markets as opening new TAM

to online sports betting operators, not cannibalistic.

PM regulatory moat. Licences would need to be attained before any real money wagering•

could take place in prediction markets. A prediction market offering not based on real

money may have less consumer pull and limited appeal to market makers.

OSB wins. Data, company commentary and history tells us that prediction markets offer•

an inferior consumer product to online sports betting and that online sports betting wins,

as seen in US states where both are legal.

OSB moat. To enter the online sports betting market, Meta would need the requisite•