2026 Canadian Banks Walking Tour - Key Takeaways: Measured Optimism

Research evidence excerpt

2026 Canadian Banks Walking Tour - Key Takeaways: Measured Optimism

Canada | Banks EquityJuneResearch24, 2026

2026 Canadian Banks Walking Tour - Key

Takeaways: Measured Optimism

Despite our own cautious stance on the economic outlook (predicated

on the uncertainty surrounding CUSMA negotiations), the Canadian bank

management teams provided a unified front of reasonable optimism on their

respective outlooks. While risks remain, the tone for the second half and

into 2027 remains constructive, with the potential for lower energy prices,

productivity (AI) gains and the OSFI DSB reduction all viewed positively.

As we hosted our annual Canadian Bank Walking Tour again yesterday we note that the

management teams remain reasonably positive on their outlook despite the economic uncertainty

that they and their clients face. Much of the focus related to operational improvements, aided,

but not solely reliant on, AI efficiency gains. Lending growth will remain challenged until certain

road blocks are cleared, but the view on wealth remains positive. The general view was that OSFI's

decision on Friday to lower the domestic stability buffer was a positive signal, but, with volume

growth really a demand, not supply, issue, the immediate-term impact is likely limited. Against

this backdrop, we offer the following five key takeaways from the day's meetings with senior

management from the 'Big 5' banks, including:

1. Growth strategies remain franchise-led and disciplined. BMO is leaning into its Canadian

commercial “crown jewel,” Scotia is positioning Wealth as its primary growth engine, RBC

is expanding Canadian/U.S. wealth and alternatives, and TD is deepening share across

cards, mortgages, small business and wealth. Across banks, management teams emphasized