China Communications Infrastructure: AI Optics in Structural Upcycle

Research evidence excerpt

China Communications Infrastructure: AI Optics in Structural Upcycle

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24 Jun 2026 06:10:55 ET │ 40 pages

China Communications Infrastructure

AI Optics in Structural Upcycle

CITI'S TAKE

Kyna Wong AC

The AI infrastructure buildout is triggering a structural upcycle in optical +852-2868-7820

interconnects, with the global optical interconnects market projected in our kyna.wong@citi.com

model to reach US$92bn by 2028E — a 65% three-year CAGR. Datacom

should dominate at 89% of shipments, led by 800G and 1.6T transceivers Karen Huang AC

growing at 31% and 215% shipment CAGRs, respectively. CPO/NPO +852-2501-2755

shipments should emerge from 2027E, reaching 56m units in 2028E. karen.xw.huang@citi.com

Silicon photonics penetration would rise to 60% by 2028E, we estimate,

driving a 987m of CW laser chips demand. Our top picks are DSBJ (TP raised Yiming Li, CFA

to Rmb350 from Rmb225) on optical chips/module share gain, Eoptolink +852-2501-2857

(TP up to Rmb701 from Rmb353.572) on 3.2T/NPO benefits, and Suzhou yiming.li@citi.com

TFC (TP Rmb419, up from Rmb318.572) as a CPO beneficiary. We

downgrade T&S Communications to Sell (from Buy; TP cut to Rmb152 from Kevin Chen

Rmb156 ) on Corning decoupling risk and stretched valuations. +852-2501-2125

kevin.y.chen@citi.com

Datacom dominates optical interconnects: We extend our optical interconnects

industry model to cover telecoms, datacom and enterprises demand. We forecast

2028 optical interconnects shipments could reach 300m, from 110m in 2025, with

a 40% three-year CAGR, in which datacom accounts for 89%. The overall market

could hit US$92bn by 2028 with a 65% 3-year CAGR driven by bandwidth upgrade

and scale-up penetration. The ASP is likely to trend up with an 18% CAGR in the

same period.