Nike Order Recovery May Take More Time

Research evidence excerpt

Nike Order Recovery May Take More Time

China (PRC) | Apparel, Footwear &

Textiles EquityJuneResearch24, 2026

We conducted checks focusing on Nike's orderbook for AW (Autumn/

Winter) 2026 and SS (Spring/Summer) 2027. Overall, we expect AW 2026

order value YoY chg to be similar to that of SS 2026. Issues, including

distributor policy adjustments and product pipeline, may hinder order

recovery in the near term. For SS 2027, we expect uncertainties surrounding

OEM and Nike's negotiations on cost pass-through.

*AW 2026 orders appear muted: We expect a similar order value YoY chg in AW 2026 vs.

that of SS 2026. We are not seeing major ASP adjustment YoY, so volume is still the key

factor affecting orders. We expect orders for apparel to be more resilient than for footwear

in AW 2026. Footwear (especially Lifestyle and Jordan) orders appear to be weak, based on

our observations.

*Distributor adjustments: On 19 June, Chinese media outlet "The Economic Observer"

reported that Nike may cancel Chinese distributors' rights to sell Nike products on Chinese e-

commerce platforms, starting from 1 Jan 2027. Nike aims to consolidate e-commerce traffic

to Nike's DTC stores and apps, according to the media report. We observe Nike proactively

destocking its distributors in China. We expect Nike's AW 2026 shipments to distributors like

Topsports and Pou Sheng to be slightly lower than the distributors' orders.

*SS 2027: Price negotiation between OEMs and Nike: Price negotiation is the key topic during

the initial dialogue on calendar 2027 procurement plans between Nike and its OEMs. The

OEMs, on average, want to pass on >50% of the additional costs (from crude oil price inflation)

to Nike, via FOB price increases. However, we believe Nike plans to shoulder only minimal

additional costs.