PowerPoints: AES/NI Indiana, Nuclear, CEG/WMT, D, EVRG, XEL, ES, ORA, & EIX

Research evidence excerpt

PowerPoints: AES/NI Indiana, Nuclear, CEG/WMT, D, EVRG, XEL, ES, ORA, & EIX

eductions bite against rising emissions from data center load. Karbone flagged that

current PJM demand is not just larger than prior forecasts but unprecedented in how front-loaded

it is, scrambling baseline assumptions. September auction could see another blowout, but Karbone

expects stabilization into 2027 as additional "super-powered" CCRs come online and dilute the market.

Real bite is 2029, contingent on whether PJM/D load growth forecasts prove real.

CCR is a soft cap, not a hard ceiling, and it's already broken. Trigger price is $18.22 in 2026 with 10%

of regional cap held in reserve, but the June clear at $35 confirms CCR volume is insufficient to contain

prices when structural demand shifts. Fundamentally, RGGI is out of road on cheap decarbonization,

coal retirements largely done, and gas retirements now required to hit targets. The ultimate cap

becomes political intervention, which is why the question of what price level becomes politically

untenable matters more than the mechanical CCR levels.

Investment implications cut three ways. First, RGGI is now a meaningful inflationary layer on PJM

power prices, with NE states effectively subsidizing VA data center buildout, creating real political

fragility (PA already exited 2025, watch NY/RI). Second, for D specifically, ratebasing the compliance

cost flows through to consumers and the $11/month impact is the early read on bill pressure. Third,

PPA underwriting has become materially harder, with desks now modeling 3 distinct regimes (3-5yr,

2032-2040, 2040+) and struggling to benchmark the risk. The dynamic to watch: does load growth

overwhelm decarbonization fast enough to force structural re-rate, or does political pushback loosen