First Read Pfizer Inc.: B6A miss in 2L vs. Doce -- Shifts Focus to Earlier Lines

Research evidence excerpt

First Read Pfizer Inc.: B6A miss in 2L vs. Doce -- Shifts Focus to Earlier Lines

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation 7.1%

Forecast dividend yield 6.9%

Forecast stock return 14.0%

Market return assumption 9.2%

Forecast excess return 4.8%

Company Description

Pfizer is a global biopharmaceuticals company that engages in the discovery, development

and manufacture of healthcare products. Its global portfolio includes medicines and vaccines.

Notably, its partnership with BioNTech produced the world's most used Covid-19 vaccine

(Comirnaty) and oral therapeutic (Paxlovid). The company has four business segments:

Primary Care (73% of sales), Specialty Care (14%), Oncology (12%) and Pfizer Centreone

(1%). Pfizer is headquartered in New York, New York.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

Our price target is based on a one-year forward P/E valuation, supported by DCF. Risks to our

PFE valuation on the upside are: (1) Outperformance of Comirnaty, (2) Better than expected

commercial success of Paxlovid, (3) Pipeline success (mRNA flu vaccine, gene therapy, oral

GLP-1), (4) Strong commercial execution globally, (5) Faster than expected operating margin

expansion driven by strong revenue and cost discipline. Downside risks include: (1) Pipeline

failure (gene therapy, mRNA flu vaccine, oral GLP-1), (2) Slowdown in approved products

(Comirnaty, Ibrance, Xeljanz, Xtandi, Eliquis), (3) Pricing pressure on the portfolio, (4) Margin

deterioration due to slowdown/failure of high margin products. Industry-specific risks

include: (1) Uncertainty around potential reforms around changes in rebate structure, (2)

Drug pricing regulations in key markets that increase pricing pressure, (3) Increased

consolidation among managed care organizations, PBMs increasing their negotiating power.