LatAm Fuel Distribution: Data Station (May/26) - A setback, not a shift

Research evidence excerpt

LatAm Fuel Distribution: Data Station (May/26) - A setback, not a shift

Global Research

22 June 2026ab

LatAm Fuel Distribution Equities

AmericasData Station (May/26) - A setback, not a shift

Oil Companies, Major

Tasso Vasconcellos

Market overview - brighter outlook beyond the dip Analyst

Despite a slight monthly market share loss for Vibra and Ipiranga, we continue to see tasso.vasconcellos@ubs.com

a supportive environment, following an improved competitive landscape and near- +55-11-2767 6683

term tailwinds from the Middle East conflicts. This, however, does not come without Matheus Enfeldt

volatility on volumes, which may also be explained by players prioritizing Analyst

maximizing results via margins. In this context, tighter market conditions and matheus.enfeldt@ubs.com

majors' stronger supply positioning have driven margins to record levels of R$250– +55-11-2767 6975

300/m3 in 1Q26, increasing further in 2Q26. Even with a normalization expected in Joao Barichello

2H26, we believe margins are likely to sustain around cR$200/m3 levels, given the Associate Analyst

accelerated capture of gains driven by the conflicts (see our recent report joao-pedro.barichello@ubs.com

reiterating Buy on UGPA and upgrading VBBR to Buy). +55-11-2767 6364

Victor Modanese

Majors' performance - Raízen stands out Associate Analyst

Vibra: market share was down by -43bps MoM (-8bps from flagged, 0bps from victor.modanese@ubs.com

+55-11-2767 6008

white flags and -35bps from B2B + TRR).

Ipiranga: market share was down by -25bps MoM (-27bps from flagged, -18bps

from white flags and +19bps from B2B + TRR).

Raízen: market share increased +37bps MoM (+14bps from flagged, +21bps

from white flags and +3bps from B2B + TRR).

Supply - monthly inventories build up