Global Oil and Gas: Hormuz tracker: day 115

Research evidence excerpt

Global Oil and Gas: Hormuz tracker: day 115

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Global Oil and Gas Equities

GlobalHormuz tracker: day 115

Oil Companies, Major

Henri Patricot, CFA

Progress continues; Iran gets a waiver Analyst

US President Donald Trump said today that as much as 19M bbls of oil crossed the Strait henri.patricot@ubs.com

of Hormuz (link). While we do not see flows as high as this in our data, we continue to +33-14-888 3033

see meaningful improvements in traffic. The US Treasury also issued a 60-day waiver Nayoung Kim

allowing Iran to sell oil and oil products in US$ (link). This could be too narrow a window Analyst

for new buyers in our view but could help unlock some of the nearly 70M bbls in the nayoung.kim@ubs.com

Gulf (link). Separately, Iran and Oman have said that they are setting up a working group +44-20-7568 4010

to discuss the framework of future administration of flows via Hormuz, including Joshua Stone

possible payments for services (link). Analyst

joshua.stone@ubs.com

Further recovery in flows +44-20-7901 5588

The latest UBS Evidence Lab data (> Access Dataset) point to a further improvement in Josh Silverstein

flows on Monday. The number of oil and gas vessels transiting Hormuz was up to 21 on Analyst

Monday, the highest level since the start of the conflict. Traffic was also more balanced josh.silverstein@ubs.com

+1-212-713 3513

yesterday: 10 or roughly half was outbound, including 6 crude tankers, 3 product

tankers and 1 LPG vessel, while 11 vessels entered, including 4 LNG carriers (Figure 1Oil&gastankerspasingthroughtheStraitofHormuz,innumberofshipsenteringandexitingtheGulf). Tom Allen

The June average has risen to 4.3 crossings per day, now above the April-May average of Analyst