Australian Banking Sector: Mortgage loan growth: Where to from here?

Research evidence excerpt

Australian Banking Sector: Mortgage loan growth: Where to from here?

Global Research

23 June 2026ab

Australian Banking Sector Equities

AustralasiaMortgage loan growth: Where to from here?

Financial

John Storey, CFA

The most hotly debated topic for the Aussie Banks: Investor Mortgages Analyst

Changes from the Federal Budget (here and here) related to negative gearing has the john.storey@ubs.com

market questioning what the potential fallout to mortgage growth for the banking +61-2-9324 3864

industry might be. We think this is a thematic that could run for a number of years still. Nicholas Sobolev

In this note, we update our credit growth assumptions on mortgages based on detailed Analyst

bottom-up fundamental loan book runoff disclosures, and provide quantitative analysis nicholas.sobolev@ubs.com

using a Monte Carlo simulation. We have reduced our mortgage growth forecasts by +61-2-9324 3026

0.5% to 1.0% across our coverage. This adjustment reflects projected changes in

mortgage book composition, roll-forward assumptions, and insights derived from our

one-year forward Monte Carlo analysis. For further details, please refer to page 3.

Our bottom-up approach to access expected mortgage growth...

We model mortgage mix shifts among the majors via loan flow rates and revised

duration assumptions. Our key finding is mortgage growth can still remain robust,

however it is unlikely to achieve the same levels of growth over the next 3 years

compared to the prior 3 years. Consensus has already lowered Australian mortgage

growth for the majors by ~0.6% to FY27E, led by CBA contracting the most, while NAB

was reduced the least (Figure 8Howthemarkethasreactedtoloangrowthasumptions). In FY28E, consensus has reduced mortgage growth

expectations by 0.8% on aggregate.