Australian Economic Comment: UBS Q2 consumer survey: still ~record spending intent; driven by income boom & family assist

Research evidence excerpt

Australian Economic Comment: UBS Q2 consumer survey: still ~record spending intent; driven by income boom & family assist

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Australian Economic Comment Economics

AustraliaUBS Q2 consumer survey: still ~record spending

intent; driven by income boom & family assist George Tharenou

Economist

george.tharenou@ubs.com

+61-2-9324 3520

UBS Evidence Lab survey: remarkably bullish despite RBA hikes & tax changes Stephen Wu

The UBS consumer survey for Q2-26 reflects responses mostly after the RBA's rate hike Economist

in May-26 & Australian Government budget. Overall, it remains remarkably bullish, stephen.wu@ubs.com

+61-2-9324 2283

especially compared to other consumer surveys, which relapsed in recent months to

~cycle lows of recent decades. UBS survey suggests the negatives of higher energy Izzy Lowe

prices, & RBA hikes (with more hikes expected), are still not derailing a positive consumer Associate Economist

outlook. This supports our view households should remain relatively resilient, supported izzy.lowe@ubs.com

+61-2-9324 2651

by: 1) a 'strong balance sheet'; and 2) income growth remaining relatively solid, aided by

stimulatory fiscal policy, with strong public wage growth & 4¾% award wage lift. Tatiana Bodrova

Associate Economist

UBS Evidence Lab survey: spending & income intentions still near record high tatiana.bodrova@ubs.com

+61-29-324 2645

Our key insights include: 1) Nominal consumer spending intentions in the next 12

months eased q/q; but remain near a record high. That said, the gap across household

income widened, as high-income remain strongest, but low-income retraced sharply,

albeit reflecting a spike in fuel prices, which more recently ~reversed. 2) Nominal income