Americas Sustainability El Niño in LatAm - From Climate Risk to Cross-Sector Positioning

Research evidence excerpt

Americas Sustainability El Niño in LatAm - From Climate Risk to Cross-Sector Positioning

com

real income, and operating conditions. Importantly, the magnitude of this +55-11-2767 6975

propagation is not uniform and varies meaningfully across geographies, sectors, and Alberto Valerio

business models. Analyst

alberto.valerio@ubs.com

Preparedness matters more than exposure +55-11-2767 6918

What matters for investors is not exposure alone, but how well companies are Caio Greiner

positioned to absorb or benefit from these effects. Across sectors, outcomes are Analyst

caio.greiner@ubs.comincreasingly shaped by diversification, contractual protection, pricing power, and

+55-11-2767 6294

operating flexibility, rather than by exposure to weather conditions per se. In this

context, opportunities tend to be more visible in diversified utilities, selective Tasso Vasconcellos

agribusiness exposure, and defensive consumer formats, while hydro-heavy Analyst

tasso.vasconcellos@ubs.comgeneration and discretionary retail show greater sensitivity to the theme. Within

+55-11-2767 6683

agribusiness, outcomes are more dispersed, with performance increasingly driven

by execution, geographic footprint, and the ability to mitigate weather variability Vinicius Strano, CFA

(See page 9 for details on how companies are preparing for these impacts). Analyst

vinicius.strano@ubs.com

+55-11-2767 6688

Positioning: where dispersion creates opportunity

Rodrigo AlcantaraIn our view, El Niño is best approached as a stock-selection and relative-value

Analyst

theme. The key opportunity lies in identifying where exposure and mitigation

rodrigo.alcantara@ubs.com

diverge, rather than in broad sector allocation. Historical evidence suggests that +55-11-2767 6324