JEF Strategy—Is Consumer Back? Nantucket Takeaways & Update on Consumer

Research evidence excerpt

JEF Strategy—Is Consumer Back? Nantucket Takeaways & Update on Consumer

USA | Equity Strategy EquityJuneResearch24, 2026

STRATEGY NOTEJEF Strategy—Is Consumer Back? Nantucket

Takeaways & Update on Consumer

Takeaways from Nantucket: companies have navigated a challenging 1H26 Sector ratings for Consumer across Small and

Large

well, setting up for improvement at the margin as consumer sentiment Sector Rating

stabilizes. Sentiment remains poor for both Discretionary and Staples reflected GICS Sector Small Cap Large Cap

by ETF outflows YTD. Improving earnings and macro could drive interest. Early Discretionary Overweight Underweight

green shoots are emerging, with Staples outperforming in Small and Large MTD, . Staples Market Weight Market Weight

and Discretionary flows turning positive last week. We look for trend to continue Source: Jefferies

in 2H26. Flows have been poor to Consumer sectors,

but we started to see improvement this week

Discretionary Staples

We left Nantucket last week feeling more positive about consumer companies heading into the 1.00% 0.46% Net ETF Flows as a % of Total Assets

2nd half of '26 and into '27. Companies were optimistic about growth, innovation, and operational 0.00%

improvements, while acknowledging ongoing challenges with inflation, especially with bifurcated -1.00%-2.00% -1.80% -0.46%

consumer spending and the lower-end consumer facing pressure. Across the meetings we -3.00%

attended, it was clear that companies have navigated the challenging macro environment with -4.00%-5.00% -3.72%

discipline and agility, setting up for positive growth at the margins as the macro improves. Below -6.00%

are some of the key trends and themes that stood out: -7.00% -6.42%

-8.00% -7.51%

. 1 Week 1 Month YTD