Global Oil: Monthly Agency Data Snapshot: Hormuz re-opening in focus

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Global Oil: Monthly Agency Data Snapshot: Hormuz re-opening in focus

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Global Oil: Monthly Agency Data Snapshot Equities

GlobalHormuz re-opening in focus

Oil Companies, Major

Henri Patricot, CFA

Early signs of Hormuz ramp-up post US-Iran deal Analyst

The US-Iran interim deal has driven Brent below $80/bbl as the market prices in the henri.patricot@ubs.com

ramp-up of oil flows via Hormuz and production ramp-up in the region. Since the deal, +33-14-888 3033

the average number of oil & gas crossings is up to 8, up from ~3 over May-June and ~50 Nayoung Kim

pre-conflict. Gulf producers are prepping for production restarts, although for now Analyst

crossings have more about tankers leaving the Gulf than entering it. If Hormuz flows nayoung.kim@ubs.com

continue to improve, we estimate 3Q losses should be 7Mb/d (vs. 12Mb/d previously) +44-20-7568 4010

after a 14Mb/d peak over May-June. Restarting production, easing insurance and freight Joshua Stone

and clearing port/terminal congestions all take time. We expect nearly 80% of lost Analyst

liquids supply back within 3 months and ~90% by year-end. Inventories have come joshua.stone@ubs.com

down: the IEA estimates global draws of 74Mb in April and 143Mb in May and we +44-20-7901 5588

expect the draws to be revised higher. We forecast total net inventory draws of 1.2bn Josh Silverstein

bbls, or >18 months to refill at 2Mb/d. Analyst

josh.silverstein@ubs.com

Balances keep moving +1-212-713 3513

Market balances have shifted with the timing of Hormuz re-opening. The IEA updated Tom Allen

post US-Iran deal and sees a smaller deficit of 3.1Mb/d in 2Q26 (vs. 6.0Mb/d previously), Analyst

and 2026 at -0.9Mb/d (vs. -1.8Mb/d). The EIA, published before the deal was tom.allen@ubs.com