Brazil Pharmaceutical Tracker: Weak May Partially On Tougher Comparables

Research evidence excerpt

Brazil Pharmaceutical Tracker: Weak May Partially On Tougher Comparables

UpdateMview on the broader market. The slowdown is not yet sufficient to indicate a

deceleration beyond what was already expected, especially as the market starts to

face tougher comparison bases following the Mounjaro-driven acceleration. From

here, our focus remains on the ramp-up of semaglutide copies, particularly in 3Q26,

and their ability to expand the market through price elasticity while also migrating

demand from unauthorized imports into the formal channel. Importantly, investor

skepticism around the growth and elasticity of the GLP-1 market has increased,

making the next few months key to assessing the category's trajectory. That said,

publicly available Sindusfarma/IQVIA data no longer provides a semaglutide-level

breakdown, which should limit visibility into the segment's underlying evolution for

non-market participants.

Institutional Channel: Strong Volumes. The institutional channel is inherently

more volatile than retail, particularly within generics/similar products, likely

reflecting procurement cycles and tender timing rather than underlying demand

trends. That said, IQVIA data still showed strong May sales (+11% YoY), a small

acceleration from April growth (+9%), amid tougher comps and a broader market

slowdown. By segment, generics/similar grew 21%, while reference products were

almost stable (+1%). Generics/similar was mainly driven by volumes (+14%) while

average prices decelerated (+6%) from the double-digit performance in the last

months. In reference products, volumes were flat, while average prices were up 1%.

Bionexo's May price index (IPM-H) indicates -5% YoY, following USD/BRL

performance. IPM-H also indicates that price drops are being offset by more