Constellation Brands: Into the Print: F1Q‘27 EPS Preview

Research evidence excerpt

Constellation Brands: Into the Print: F1Q‘27 EPS Preview

), earnings *Rev. (MM)

beat expectations ($1.90 vs $1.75). Full-year F27 guidance, however, came in much lighter than

expected. It is possible the market underestimated the impact of lapping the California wildfires.

4. Last Year (F1Q26): Organic sales fell 4.2% (-4.8% shipments; -2.6% depletions) as Hispanic

consumer headwinds kicked in. Elevated ad spend on a weaker core consumer led to an EPS

shortfall of $3.22 (vs $3.36). The full-year outlook was maintained until Sept '25 when Constellation

cut its F26 EPS guide by 10% as immigration-fueled concerns peaked.

5. Estimate Revisions: We lower our F1Q organic sales growth estimate to 1% (in-line) on the

trajectory of US consumption trends. Down the P&L, we reduce our EBIT margins by 80bp to better

account for elevated ad spend. This reduces our F1Q EPS estimate to $3.21 (Street $3.24). For F27,

we expect 0.8% organic sales growth and lower GM expansion (46bp) than we initially expected.

This puts us at $11.70 (Street $11.79; prior $11.73).

6. Investment Thesis: Constellation's beer portfolio is no longer delivering run-rate growth in the

MSD-HSD% range. Being landlocked in a challenged US beverage alcohol market makes it difficult

to justify shares returning to 18x P/E (10Y historical average), in the absence of improvement in

its core consumer.

7. Valuation: To expand the multiple, we believe there needs to be proof that the company can

regain momentum in F27 and beyond. PT to $157 based on 10.5x our F28 Adj. EBITDA of $3.6bn.

Kaumil Gajrawala * | Equity Analyst

+1 (212) 778-8937 | kgajrawala@jefferies.com

FY (Feb) 2025A 2026A 2027E 2028E Keith Devas * | Equity Analyst

+1 (212) 778-8233 | kdevas@jefferies.com

EV/EBITDA 8.9x 10.4x 10.1x 9.7x