Healthy1Q26 Spine Market Growth; Solid FY26 Outlook; ATEC/GMED/SIBN Gaining

Research evidence excerpt

Healthy1Q26 Spine Market Growth; Solid FY26 Outlook; ATEC/GMED/SIBN Gaining

USA | Medical Supplies & Devices EquityJuneResearch23, 2026

Healthy1Q26 Spine Market Growth; Solid FY26

Outlook; ATEC/GMED/SIBN Gaining

We are publishing our Spine market model ahead of 2Q26 results. We

estimate ~6.8% xfx WW growth in 1Q (2-yr stacked ~4.8% xfx), supported by

demographics, stable pricing, and tech adoption. We now forecast FY26 growth

of 6.4% xfx (+80 bps vs prior, higher than 5.8% last year) and ~5.5% xfx growth

in FY27. We continue to expect share gains for ATEC (Buy), GMED (Buy), and

SIBN (Buy), with MDT share stable, and JNJ/OFIX/Other (NC) share donors.

WW spine market sales grew ~6.8% xfx in 1Q26 (2-yr stack +4.8%) to $2.90B, supported by

healthy procedure volumes/demographics, stable pricing, and continued adoption of enabling

technologies (robotics and navigation). Growth was balanced geographically, with the US +6.4%

and OUS +8.4% xfx, with the latter benefiting from stronger international demand and easy comps.

Looking ahead, we forecast FY26 spine growth of +6.4% xfx (+80 bps vs prior, higher than 5.8%

last year) and +5.4% in FY27. Overall, the market backdrop appears stable to us with no major

shifts in demand signals, pricing, or reimbursement.

Recent checks point to healthy market growth, helped by the unmet needs in spine surgery,

profitability of spine procedures, and growth in surgery centers. Robotic adoption continues,

with surgeons and hospitals motivated by the potential for better MIS patient outcomes and more

throughput. The number and scope of cases also continues to increase, enabled by new tech. ATEC

continues to gain share through rep hiring per our checks, with GMED and MDT also performing

well, in-line with our company observations.