Nordic Banks | Europe 2Q26: A Smooth Quarter

Research evidence excerpt

Nordic Banks | Europe 2Q26: A Smooth Quarter

Idea

June 23, 2026 04:01 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MNordic Banks | Europe Gulnara Saitkulova

Equity Analyst

2Q26: A Smooth Quarter Gulnara.Saitkulova@morganstanley.comNed Tidmarsh +44 20 7677-0313

Research Associate

Ned.Tidmarsh@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0122

Nordic banks should deliver modest NII growth in Q2 as the Giulia Aurora Miotto, CFA

sector moves past the trough. Fees should improve seasonally, EquityGiulia.Aurora.Miotto@morganstanley.comAnalyst +44 20 7425-5344

while costs remain in focus. Into Q2, we are above consensus on

Banks

DNB/SHB, and below on SEB. Europe

Industry View Attractive

NII: Inflection Point. With Nordic banks having reached the NII trough in Q1, we What’s Changed

expect NII to return to growth in Q2. The rebound should be modest, however, with Skandinaviska Enskilda

NII up c.1-2% QoQ, broadly in line with consensus. Banks have indicated that volume Banken AB (SEBa.ST) From To

Price Target SKr 175.00 SKr 171.00

growth remains similar to Q1 levels. Q2 should benefit from a favourable interest-

day effect, while SEK-reporting banks should also see an FX tailwind from the c.1.7% DNB (DNB.OL) From To

Price Target NKr 276.00 NKr 282.00

strengthening of the SEK versus the EUR. Offsetting this, management teams have

highlighted the lagged impact of recent rate hikes and higher funding costs, which Swedbank (SWEDa.ST) From To

Price Target SKr 309.00 SKr 311.00

could temper NII momentum. In addition, dividend payments are expected to reduce

interest-bearing cash balances versus Q1, creating another headwind. Mortgage Danske Bank (DANSKE.CO) From To

Price Target DKr 368.00 DKr 375.00

margins in Sweden remain under pressure. Nordea also continues to flag lending