Jef U: Colombia Election RunOff - Expert Call Takeaways

Research evidence excerpt

Jef U: Colombia Election RunOff - Expert Call Takeaways

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Latin America | Equity Strategy EquityJuneResearch23, 2026

Jef U: Colombia Election RunOff - Expert Call

Takeaways

.We hosted political expert James Bosworth, to discuss Colombia’s post-

election outlook after De la Espriella’s razor-thin win (c49.7% vs. 48.7%). Key Relevant stocks: Ecopetrol, Cibest/

takeaways: 1) win signals change but weak mandate, 2) early governance Bancolombia, Grupo Argos, Grupo SURA,

likely decree-led given limited congressional support, 3) pro-business backdrop, Cementos Argos, Grupo Exito, PriceSmart,

notably for energy, mining & financials, and 4) near-term sentiment may Jeronimo Martins

improve, but mid-term risks include fiscal slippage & policy durability.

Speaker Biography:

Tight Win, Limited Mandate? Colombia’s election marks a clear political swing to the right, but the

James Bosworth is the founder of Hxagon,margin was exceptionally tight, with De la Espriella ahead by 1pp. In Bosworth’s view, this reflects

a company that provides political riskopposition fragmentation rather than a strong voter endorsement, with the left still retaining a

analysis and bespoke research in emerginglarge and mobilised base. For investors, this suggests that while policy direction may turn more

markets, primarily Latin America. Hxagonmarket-friendly, the government lacks a clean mandate for aggressive structural reform. Petro

helps clients to research, analyze andmay challenge the result rhetorically but lacks the institutional ability to block the transition, while

understand the risks that they face.opposition fragmentation could paradoxically support early governability, in Bosworth’s view.

Mr Bosworth is also the author of the LatinFragile Foundations: Speed vs Durability.