2Q Preview: Nivea Dark Spot Yet to Clear

Research evidence excerpt

2Q Preview: Nivea Dark Spot Yet to Clear

less disruption from Sunrise and

good China online data bolster our confidence in an improving trend for La Prairie. We estimate

JEFe 0.5% vs cons -1.8% for 2Q26. Looking ahead to H2, we should see some benefit from the

(relatively) more accessible SKUs, both as a recruitment tool and vehicle into specialty multi-

brand retail, reducing reliance on department stores.

HC and Other. We increase our healthcare estimate to 5% vs cons the same. We expect

Coppertone to be weak again this quarter, as the company looks to reshape the portfolio.

Nielsen US data implies that in 2Q26 the brand has been tracking down 12%, which we have

reflected in our 2Q26 estimates.

Further consumer deleverage as estimates come down. The incremental sales deleverage

pushes our consumer margin estimate down to 11.8%, from 12.1% previously, and 13.0%

consensus. This assumes some efficiencies in non-working media and R&D, but little ability to

cover other rising costs via price increases.

tesa balancing the scales... Our group estimate revisions are softened by small upgrades in

tesa on both top and bottom line, with organic sales now 0.3% (from -0.1%) for FY26 and 15.7%

margin (from 15.5%).

...not the sentiment. However, we expect the consumer revisions to drive sentiment and

valuation, leading to a further PT cut in our DCF to €81 (from €84). This implies an EV/NOPAT

of c15.5x (coverage average 17x) vs c12x consensus NOPAT today. We are c1.8pp below

consensus LFL% & 120bp below on op margin for FY26e consumer. This implies an earnings

miss of 9% v VA cons.

Molly Wylenzek * | Equity Analyst

44 (0) 20 7029 8564 | mwylenzek@jefferies.com

FY (Dec) 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E David Hayes * | Equity Analyst

+44 (0)20 7029 8230 | david.hayes@jefferies.com

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