Mexico | Key Takes from latest FSR

Research evidence excerpt

Mexico | Key Takes from latest FSR

Latin America | Banks EquityJuneResearch23, 2026

Exhibit 1 - Mexico: Private Sector debt to GDP,Mexico | Key Takes from latest FSR

%

Mexico’s private sector remains in deleveraging mode, raising questions about 60

long-term credit deepening. SMEs are carrying corporate loan growth, while 50

large corporates remain subdued. At the same time, the RWA-density tailwind 40

that boosted CET1 ratios since 2020 has largely run its course. 30

Mexico remains in a deleveraging phase. Private-sector debt-to-GDP stood at 38.6% by Mar-26, 10

nearly 3pp below the pre-COVID peak reached in December 2016. This compares unfavorably with 0

Mar-94 Sep-95 Mar-97 Sep-98 Mar-00 Sep-01 Mar-03 Sep-04 Mar-06 Sep-07 Mar-09 Sep-10 Mar-12 Sep-13 Mar-15 Sep-16 Mar-18 Sep-19 Mar-21 Sep-22 Mar-24 Sep-25

the "golden decade" of 2006–16, when private-sector debt-to-GDP increased from 23% to over Corporates HHs

40%. While lower leverage is supportive of asset quality in the current environment of sluggish .Source: Jefferies, BANXICO.

economic growth, it also raises questions about the private sector’s ability to expand credit at a

pace meaningfully above nominal GDP growth. See Exhibit 1. Exhibit 2 - Mexico: Bank credit to Corporate

sector by Co size (y/y %)

SMEs continue to outperform large corporates. FSR data suggest demand for bank credit among 20

SMEs remains robust, growing c.10% y/y in real terms, while lending to large corporates is broadly 1510

flat in real terms (FX neutral). The resulting growth differential is the widest observed in many 5

years, highlighting both the relative strength of credit demand among smaller businesses and less 0

competition from capital markets. See Exhibit 2. -10-5

The RWA density story may be largely behind us.