SPE Outlook:主要銘柄の目標株価を引き上げ

Research evidence excerpt

SPE Outlook:主要銘柄の目標株価を引き上げ

conducted before stacking,

and only dies known to be good are stacked. This process is driving increased demand for testers.

Demand for post-stacking testing is also expected to expand going forward. TOWA’s compression

molding equipment, which uses a differentiated molding method, has gained dominant share for

HBM3 supply two Korean customers. The company received approximately ¥5bn in orders in

FY23. TOWA’s orders eased in FY24, but from 2H FY25 through FY26, orders have been gradually

increasing, driven by HBM4 demand and the acquisition of new customers.

Regarding HBM-related equipment demand, significant capacity expansion (including some

forward-pull activity) occurred in 2024, resulting in only limited incremental growth in equipment

demand in 2025. Full-scale mass production of HBM4 is expected to begin in 2026, and equipment

demand for HBM4 already begun to emerge in 2H FY25. While HBM4 costs remain high and

HBM3 yields are improving, demand for HBM4 is rising. However, cost considerations mean that

some HBM4 configurations are limited to eight layers, resulting in a relatively gradual ramp-up of

equipment demand for 12- to 16-layer HBM4. Nevertheless, demand is expected to increase toward

2H FY26.

Regarding equipment, the shift to HBM4 is expected to drive demand for new-generation systems

from TOWA (bonding equipment) and Tokyo Seimitsu (probers) that offer higher precision

and advanced thermal control capabilities. Demand for next-generation models from Advantest

(testers) may also emerge as I/O speeds increase. While DISCO is not expected to see new demand

driven by HBM4 specifications, the increase in stacking layers is likely to boost demand for its

grinders.

It appears that a certain proportion of HBM-related equipment (approx.