The Enterprise Compute Shortage - Pull-Forward or 1Paradigm Shift?

Research evidence excerpt

The Enterprise Compute Shortage - Pull-Forward or 1Paradigm Shift?

Idea

June 23, 2026 04:21 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMIT Hardware | North America Erik W Woodring

Equity Analyst

The Enterprise Compute Erik.Woodring@morganstanley.comMaya C Neuman +1 212 296-8083

Research Associate

Maya.Neuman@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1946

Shortage - Pull-Forward or Dylan Liu

Dylan.Liu@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4519

1Paradigm Shift? Rauf Ural

Rauf.Ural@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-5958

What’s Changed

IT Hardware

IBM (IBM.N) From To North America

Price Target $225.00 $267.00 Industry View Cautious

CDW Corporation (CDW.O)

Rating Equal-weight Overweight

Price Target $142.00 $170.00

Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL.N)

Price Target $448.00 $477.00

Ingram Micro (INGM.N)

Price Target $27.50 $33.00

TD Synnex Corporation (SNX.N)

Price Target $271.00 $341.00

DELL and HPE earnings illustrate how inelastic compute

demand is today despite significant price increases. While we’re

not yet “all in” on durability of this trend, Street estimates for

‘26/‘27 look too low. Raising server market TAM to $800B+ and

EPS estimates 5-6% for compute exposed names.

Key Takeaways

Enterprise server demand is proving far more inelastic than expected amidst

compute shortages, refresh activity, and growing AI-related infrastructure needs.

While we're not yet calling a multi-year “Enterprise Server Renaissance,” evidence

suggests Street ests for compute-exposed names are too low in CY26-CY27.

We raise our server TAM forecast to $809B in CY26 (+82% Y/Y) and now expect

robust server revenue growth to sustain through 2027.

We prefer OW-rated SNX and upgrade CDW to OW, viewing both as most

attractive ways to capture server demand upside.

See material earnings upside at DELL and HPE, but at premium valuations vs.