Tepid Demand Likely Extends Into FY27

Research evidence excerpt

Tepid Demand Likely Extends Into FY27

USA | Chemicals

Ashland EquityJuneResearch23, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGETepid Demand Likely Extends Into FY27

We adjust our estimates to better reflect tepid end-market conditions, which RATING BUY

we expect to extend into FY27. Productivity and innovation gains, and easy PRICE $67.92^

comparisons given the operating issues this year, likely more than offset PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $79.00 ($72.00) | +16%

incentive comp next year, but underlying acceleration in organic growth likely 52W HIGH-LOW $67.97 - $46.30

remains muted for several quarters. Valuation likely hinges on the degree to FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 98.1% | 74.85

which innovation can bolster growth, and margins, into the next cycle. MARKET CAP $3.1B

TICKER ASH

Adjusting Estimates: We are adjusting our estimates to better reflect the cadence of headwinds ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise noted.

from Hopewell, and also to take into account the potential dampening of consumer demand if

interest rates are flat-to-higher for several quarters. While there are pockets of strength in Life

Sciences and Personal Care, overall we view Specialty Additives and Intermediates as much closer FY (Sep) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

to trough levels, with any recovery in sectors like architectural coatings likely to be gradual and 2026 2027 2026 2027

regionally inconsistent. REV -2% -2% -3% -3%

EPS -9% -13% -5% -6%

Narrative Could Shift Next Year: Despite near-term operational disruptions, the underlying

trajectory points to a higher-margin portfolio supported by differentiated product innovation and

2026 ($) Q1A Q2A Q3 Q4 FY

embedded productivity initiatives. Accelerating innovation-led growth while improving productivity

EPS 0.26 0.91 0.59 1.68 3.45