The Runway: Airline Rolling Cuts Muted, Selective Green Shoots for Airports

Research evidence excerpt

The Runway: Airline Rolling Cuts Muted, Selective Green Shoots for Airports

Idea

June 23, 2026 04:00 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MAirlines & Airports | Europe Axel Stasse

Equity Analyst

The Runway: Airline Rolling Axel.Stasse@morganstanley.comNicolas J Mora +44 20 7425-2429

Nicolas.Mora@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-5376

Cuts Muted, Selective Green Oscar P Smyth

Research Associate

Oscar.Smyth@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-6567

Shoots for Airports Cedar Ekblom, CFA

Cedar.Ekblom@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-4623

Bi-monthly airlines & airports tracker. Capacity cuts across Flags Jamie Rollo

(-1%/-2% vs 8 weeks ago) into 2Q/3Q. Less significant cuts across EquityJamie.Rollo@morganstanley.comAnalyst +44 20 7425-3281

LCC, with Lufthansa cutting the most in Europe (-1.5%/-2.5%). Peter Ajose-Adeogun

On Airports, cuts are concentrated in Frankfurt/Munich/Zurich/ EquityPeter.Ajose-Adeogun@morganstanley.comAnalyst +44 20 7677-1618

AdR in 3Q, with slight additions at Heathrow.

Transport

Europe

Key Takeaways Industry View In-Line

2Q26 LCCs capacity -0.2% vs. 8 weeks ago. Wizz the key contributor at -0.6%

(cuts for IT/DE/ES/UK). LCC capacity still +7%/+9% YoY in 2Q/3Q26.

Cuts vs. 8 weeks ago for flag carriers in 2Q/3Q26 (-1%/-2%). Flags capacity (+2%/

+2% YoY) more disciplined than LCCs, especially for LHA (-1.5%/-2.5%).

Flag carriers > LCCs, with Top Pick OW IAG benefiting from further ASK cuts

supporting RASK improvement, while continuing to deliver solid cash returns.

Airport capacity: Frankfurt/Munich/Zurich deepest WoW cuts for 3Q schedules.

Modest downside on Flughafen Zurich (UW) while Aena (OW) is stable.

Airport Hubs: 2Q26 Schedules +1.5% YoY vs EU market +1.9%; 3Q26 stronger

with Hubs +3.2%/EU market at +4%.