China Beer May update: Heineken rapidly accelerating while Bud still languishes

Research evidence excerpt

China Beer May update: Heineken rapidly accelerating while Bud still languishes

23 June 2026

APAC Food & Beverages

China Beer May update: Heineken rapidly accelerating while Bud

still languishes

China beer total sell-out value was +2% in May 2026, reflecting a small step up from April’s Euan McLeish

+81 3 5962 9611 1% growth. Restaurant channel value growth continued in line with April at +3%, while off-

euan.mcleish@bernsteinsg.com trade value growth improved to +1% from -1% in April. Yanjing (not covered) was again the

strongest performer in May with value +17% YoY (slowing down somewhat from April’s

Hao Wang, CFA +19%), followed by Chongqing (not covered) at +9% and CRBeer +3%, while Tsingtao

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hao.wang@bernsteinsg.com value was -2%, and Bud China again underperforming the industry with a -3% decline.

Mufei Gao Our regressions now indicate that CRBeer’s topline growth will accelerate to c. 2% in Q2,

+81 3 6777 6995 Bud China’s decline will narrow to c. -2%, and Tsingtao’s will widen to c. -3% based on the

mufei.gao@bernsteinsg.com Q2 to date monthly sales. We have observed a 96% correlation between Bud’s reported

growth over the last 15 months, compared to 84% for Yanjing, 81% for Tsingtao and

Chongqing at 73%. CRBeer’s correlation is low given they only report semi-annually.

Total off-trade beer sales improved MoM in all five key provinces, led by Zhejiang and

Jiangsu which improved to +11%/+5%, from -7%/-11%, and Guangdong’s off-trade

growth continued to accelerate to +14% YoY vs +10% in April. All segments, other than

MS+, bounced back to growth in the off-trade. In the restaurant channel, Guangdong again

outperformed at +20% but we still haven’t seen this filter through to Bud China. Shandong

led the decline at -20%, dragging Tsingtao down.