Global Energy Storage: Have lithium prices peaked?

Research evidence excerpt

Global Energy Storage: Have lithium prices peaked?

23 June 2026

Global Energy Storage

Lithium carbonate prices have tripled from 2025 lows, reaching ~$30k/t in May before Brian Ho, CFA

+852 2123 2615 easing to $20–25k/t on supply restarts, which we view as a short-term buffer. We continue

brian.ho@bernsteinsg.com to view the market as being in a mid-cycle recovery rather than approaching a peak.

Inventories are tight at ~20 days, capex has yet to recover, and supply growth is starting to

Neil Beveridge, Ph.D. moderate. On the demand side, robust battery demand led by ESS continues to absorb higher

+852 2123 2648

neil.beveridge@bernsteinsg.com prices. Taken together, we see further upside risks, with prices likely peaking closer to 2027.

Kelvin Yuan, Ph.D., CFA Lithium demand has grown ~32% year to date, outpacing supply growth of ~24%

+852 2123 2612 and driving a meaningful market tightening. The key driver has been ESS, with demand

kelvin.yuan@bernsteinsg.com up ~100% YTD, offsetting more moderate EV growth of ~9%. On the lithium supply side,

growth has been led by China (+30%), Chile (+25%), and Argentina (+106%), while

Australia (+6%) and Zimbabwe (+16%) have lagged, contributing to a tighter-than-

expected balance.

We estimate ~200kt LCE of curtailed supply is gradually returning to the market

although this only provides a short term buffer. While this may help partially close the

supply gap in 2026, it is unlikely to keep pace with demand growth as capacity additions

slow beyond 2026, leaving the market increasingly tight into 2027.

Inventories have tightened significantly, with lithium inventory days falling to ~20

days year to date. Historically, lithium prices tend to rise more sharply once inventory falls