Geelong Refinery Update

Research evidence excerpt

Geelong Refinery Update

Australia | Refining & Marketing

Viva Energy EquityJuneResearch22, 2026

FLASH NOTEGeelong Refinery Update

Repairs to restart RCCU completed with refinery to return to >90% of normal RATING HOLD

capacity this week. April/May refining margins softer than expected but PRICE AUD2.08^

broadly offset by better production volumes. Gasoline volumes likely lower PRICE TARGET | % TO PT AUD2.25 | +8%

for some time given Alkylation unit remains offline, which will be a drag 52W HIGH-LOW AUD2.69 - AUD1.70

on margins. However, we expect refining margins to be elevated until ME FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 67.1% | 7.41

supply normalises. We continue to prefer ALD, given superior Convenience MARKET CAP AUD3.4B | $2.4B

execution. TICKER VEA AU

^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

Geelong Refinery Update - Company indicated that works to restart RCCU have been

completed, c. 1 wk later than previously anticipated, with RCCU & associated units returning

to operation this week. Production expected to return to >90% of normal capacity. Following

fire, Akylation unit has been isolated from refining operations and will remain offline. Figure 4 - ALD & VEA PE ratio

20x

VEA ALD

18x

Margin will be impacted until Alkylation unit is repaired or replaced - Management 16x

indicated that the refinery will likely operate without the Alkylation unit throughout 2027 as an 14x12x

assessment of options to repair or replace the unit is underway. This will impact the ability 10x8x

to convert LPG by-product into gasoline. In the interim, as well as production being impacted, 6x

there will be a margin drag, because VEA will need to purchase alkylate that it was previously May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26