2026 Asia Nicotine Field Trip Feedback

Research evidence excerpt

2026 Asia Nicotine Field Trip Feedback

Global Research

22 June 2026ab

Global Tobacco Equities

GlobalAsia Field Trip Feedback

Tobacco

Faham Baig

Vapour growth is slowing, which could be a positive for tobacco companies Analyst

Last week, we hosted our third exclusive Nicotine Field Trip to Shenzhen and Tokyo, faham.baig@ubs.com

where we met 10 (private and public) companies across the categories of vapour, heated +44-20-7568 3966

tobacco and nicotine pouches. Key takeaways from this year's trip (2025 feedback here) Christine Peng, CFA

were: (i) vapour volume growth is slowing to single digits; (ii) cost pressure is Analyst

consolidating the supply chain, and stabilising retail price of vapes; (iii) there is limited christine-y.peng@ubs.com

impact from US enforcement efforts, and most private companies are currently not +852-2971 7571

interested to follow PMTA pathway; (iv) local companies have made limited progress in Rei Ihara

nicotine pouches; and (v) competitive activity is unlikely to ease in Japan heated tobacco. Analyst

As we first wrote here, slowdown in vapour volume growth - a category dominated by rei.ihara@ubs.com

private Chinese players - should ease the negative substitution impact on tobacco +81-3-5208 6227

volumes. Also, the US FDA's guidance on Enforcement Priorities (here) provides legal Emily Teo

players a major breakthrough to launch flavoured vapes, and partly switch consumption Associate Analyst

from the illicit trade, in our view. emily-s.teo@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 1002

Slowdown in vapour volume growth and cost pressure forcing suppliers out Ryunosuke Watanabe

Majority of companies highlighted a slowdown in global vapour volume growth this Associate Analyst

year, to approximately single digit growth (vs c+20% last year).