Qantas Airways: Not too dark before dawn

Research evidence excerpt

Qantas Airways: Not too dark before dawn

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation 10.5%

Forecast dividend yield 5.8%

Forecast stock return 16.4%

Market return assumption 9.6%

Forecast excess return 6.8%

Company Description

Qantas Airways is the largest international and domestic airline in Australia, with a fleet of

more than 300 aircraft. In addition to the core Qantas brand, it operates international and

domestic services under its low-cost Jetstar brand, serves regional Australia under its

Qantaslink brand, and has an in-house frequent flyer programme known as Qantas Loyalty.

Qantas also offers complementary services such as freight and tours, and provides aircraft

maintenance and in-flight catering to external customers. The company was founded in 1920

and was listed on the ASX in July 1995.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

Key risks for Qantas include (1) Fuel price and currency – despite Qantas' hedging profile, it

carries residual exposure to fluctuations in fuel price and currency, (2) Industrial action –

potential industrial action as a result of Qantas’ plans to expand its long-haul low-cost

operations and restructure its non-flying businesses, (3) Competition and regulation –

competitors have a large amount of freedom to increase capacity or reduce prices against

Qantas, and the Australian Government may reduce some of the regulatory barriers that exist

against foreign competitors, (4) High capital intensity – airlines feature high capital intensity,

which offers little financial flexibility in the event of a shock to earnings, and (5) Exogenous

shocks – airlines are subject to several geo-political risks. Our valuation is based on a FCF to

equity DCF, with the terminal value based on a long term P/E.

Qantas Airways 23 June 2026 ab 4