First Read Apogee Therapeutics Inc: Strong Execution and Data Should Support Strong M&A Outcome for Investors – in line with our Bullish Thesis

Research evidence excerpt

First Read Apogee Therapeutics Inc: Strong Execution and Data Should Support Strong M&A Outcome for Investors – in line with our Bullish Thesis

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation 10.6%

Forecast dividend yield 0.0%

Forecast stock return 10.6%

Market return assumption 9.2%

Forecast excess return 1.5%

Company Description

Apogee Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biotech developing optimized biologics for

inflammatory and immunology diseases. Using protein engineering, the company aims to

create longer-acting, highly-targeted therapies. Its lead programs address conditions such as

atopic dermatitis and chronic inflammatory disorders, with a strategy focused on best-in-class

antibody candidates.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

We value the company using a peak sales multiple applied to probability-adjusted sales across

its pipeline programs. Upside risk to our valuation includes stronger-than-expected clinical

efficacy and/or differentiation versus existing therapies. Downside risk includes weaker-than-

expected clinical data, development delays, or the emergence of safety or tolerability

concerns.

ABBV: Our price target is based on a one-year forward P/E valuation, supported by DCF.

Upside risks include: (1) Surprising acceleration in Skyrizi, Rinvoq and Aesthetic sales, (2)

Retention of higher share for Humira and Imbruvica, (3) Surprise pipeline successes

(Alzheimer's disease), and (3) Less payor pressure in immunology portfolio. Downside risks

include: (1) Slowdown in Skyrizi/Rinvoq due to slowdown in immunology market and/or

competitive pressure, (2) Pipeline failure, and (3) More than expected pricing pressure on the

immunology portfolio, Industry-specific risks include: (1) Uncertainty around potential