UBS ESTIMATES FOR REFINED PRODUCTS CRACKS & PETCHEMS

Research evidence excerpt

UBS ESTIMATES FOR REFINED PRODUCTS CRACKS & PETCHEMS

Global Research

22 June 2026ab

European Refining & Biofuels Equities

Europe including UKSteady for now – Weekly margins tracker

Oil Companies, Secondary

Anna Kishmariya

Refining margins remained broadly stable w/w Analyst

Despite the MoU signed last week, refining margins remained fairly stable w/w on a anna.kishmariya@ubs.com

composite level, supported by lower crude prices. The European composite refining +44-20-7568 7999

margin increased $0.75/bbl to $20.49/bbl. Moves up were seen in gasoline margins (+ Henri Patricot, CFA

$5.18/bbl to $29.80/bbl), whilst jet fuel margins moved lower (-$8.32/bbl to $39.32/ Analyst

bbl). QTD our composite margin has averaged $21.0/bbl vs UBSe $23.1/bbl for 2Q26. henri.patricot@ubs.com

+33-14-888 3033

Neste's renewable margin moves down w/w Joshua Stone

Neste's Renewable Product (RP) margin decreased w/w: -$103/t to $985t, with a move Analyst

lower in diesel prices in Europe and the US. The European spot margin also decreased: joshua.stone@ubs.com

+44-20-7901 5588

-$12/t to $998/t. We estimate Neste's RP margin has averaged $1,195/t QTD vs. UBSe at

$1,155/t for 2Q26 (VA cons. of $1,087/t). Nayoung Kim

Analyst

Petchem margins move lower w/w nayoung.kim@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 4010

The average monomer margin decreased $64/t to $376/t. The polyolefin margin

indicator decreased $8/t w/w to $929/t, with the polyethylene spread increasing $21/t Ellinor Cederstroem Palliotto

Associate Analyst

w/w to $221/t and the polypropylene spread down $36/t at $1,638/t.

ellinor-cederstroem.palliotto@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 1823

Key news

Leo Currie

There were two drone attacks on Gazprom Neft's Moscow refinery last week, with the Associate Analyst

second drone attack damaging the processing units.