Global Tobacco China Vapour Exports to May 2026

Research evidence excerpt

Global Tobacco China Vapour Exports to May 2026

Global Research

22 June 2026ab

Global Tobacco Equities

AmericasChina Vapour Exports to May 2026

Tobacco

Faham Baig

China exports confirm slowing vapour growth; positive for tobacco companies Analyst

Our monthly vapour volume export tracker, using data from China Customs, helps faham.baig@ubs.com

monitor the progress of the vapour category. Most vapour products are manufactured in +44-20-7568 3966

China, including those by non-tobacco manufacturers that have a UBSe >90% category Emily Teo

share. In 2025, UBS Tobacco Transformation Model estimates vapour volumes grew c Associate Analyst

+20% (accounting for c10% of total nicotine), but retail sales were broadly flat at emily-s.teo@ubs.com

$38bn. As we first wrote here and recently observed on our Asia Field Trip here, the +44-20-7567 1002

vapour category's growth is slowing, which should ease the negative substitution Christine Peng, CFA

impact on tobacco volumes. We currently expect +11% global vapour volume growth Analyst

this year. NB: The data is in kilograms (which is likely understating growth in christine-y.peng@ubs.com

consumption, due to a shift towards disposables with larger liquid capacity); vapes could +852-2971 7571

be exported under different descriptions (e.g. batteries and electronics) that is not

captured; and some production is being shifted overseas (particularly South East Asia).

Global vapour exports -7.0% in May'26 (last 6m) vs -2.2% in Apr'26

Using a six-month moving average (in an attempt to smooth for inventory movements),

we calculate vapour volumes (kilograms) declined -7.0% in May, vs -2.2% in April,

+6.9% in March, and +7.6% in February (FY25 -3.6%, vs FY24 +6.9%). The

deceleration was primarily driven by exports to the US turning negative yoy.