Cboard Prices Up $50/ton; Buying Opportunity As S/D Thesis Materializing

Research evidence excerpt

Cboard Prices Up $50/ton; Buying Opportunity As S/D Thesis Materializing

ul-Oct, with box demand peaking in Sep-Nov.

Absent of a meaningful fade in demand in 4Q26, we view that risk as manageable, and the majority

of the box contracts for the Big 3 are tied RISI.

Export cboard prices rising. US kraftliner exports are down 22% YTD through Apr, with vols to

LatAm notably weaker (-30.2%) & down slightly (-0.5%) to Mexico, as producers pulled back to

support their higher margin domestic business. That said, pricing is moving higher with June

increases of ~$30/ton to C&S America and ~$10/ton to Mexico, alongside €30/ton gains into

S. Europe. The disconnect between declining vols & rising prices underscores constrained global

supply & tighter domestic balances limiting export availability.

Boxboard grades see mixed fundamentals. RISI kept prices across SBS, CUK, & CRB unchanged

in June, with producers citing higher freight, fuel, & fiber. RISI is reporting improving SBS demand &

substitution from CRB, with lead times for SBS stretching into 6–8 weeks. The market is in better

balanced now, and the Nippon Longview outage is impacting cupstock & coated grades of SBS.

SBS producers are pursuing the $60/ton increase, which a RISI contact indicated could see partial

realization in the $30-40/ton range. CUK conditions are stable with healthy seasonal beverage

demand, but it was surprising RISI made no mention of the $60/ton increase, which we would

expect to see better traction than SBS. In contrast, CRB remains oversupplied with soft demand, Philip Ng, CFA * | Equity Analyst

with lead times at ~4 weeks. Interestingly, some contacts noted potentially moving some CRB +1 (212) 336-7369 | png@jefferies.com

production to URB to improve utilization rates.