LatAm Octant #23 | Colombia Oils: Turning The Tide?

Research evidence excerpt

LatAm Octant #23 | Colombia Oils: Turning The Tide?

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Key proposed measures for the economy and oil & gas sector:

Exhibit 3 - Colombia - Congress representation

2026-30

Fiscal consolidation & tax reform: Given Colombia’s twin deficit and weak economy, fiscal 100%•

consolidation is critical and has been central to Mr. de la Espriella’s campaign. He has vowed to 80%

reduce the size of the state by 40%, broaden the tax base and cut corporate taxes, particularly 60%

those on extractive sectors, to promote private employment and boost economic growth. 40%20%

Improving security: The fight against crime is at the heart of Mr. de la Espriella’s platform and 0%• Senate Lower House

is a precondition for investment recovery, particularly in extractive regions. This should bring CentroCambioDemocraticoRadical LiberalsCoalicion Alianza PartidoU Party Conservador

intensified military and police operations in the more problematic areas, with an emphasis on HistoricOthers Pact Ahora Colombia Citrep

.

reducing the disruptions that have weighed on companies’ operations and project economics. Source: Registraduria Colombia; Jefferies

Ecopetrol's strategic reset. The promised revitalisation of Colombia’s oil sector requires• Exhibit 4 - Colombia - Key Economic Metrics

- Key Economic Metrics 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E a swift re-shaping of Ecopetrol (88% state-owned). This should re-focus the company on ColombiaGDP growth (real) 1.2% 1.7% 2.6% 2.4% 2.1%

upstream activities, de-emphasising the low-carbon push seen in recent years. While we do CPICentral Gov Fiscal deficit (% of GDP) -4.2%11.7% -6.8%6.6% -6.4%5.1% -5.8%6.1% -4.2%5.1%

Unemployment 10.2% 10.2% 8.9% 8.8% 9.2% not see scope to privatise EC, we do see room to potentially 1) reduce state participation to .