JEI#42: May‘26 - Activity resilient, Monsoon a key to watch

Research evidence excerpt

JEI#42: May‘26 - Activity resilient, Monsoon a key to watch

India | Equity Strategy EquityJuneResearch22, 2026

STRATEGY NOTEJEI#42: May'26 - Activity resilient, Monsoon a

key to watch

Economic activity remained resilient in May'26 supported by strong power Exhibit 1 - Jefferies Economic Indicator (JEI) %

YoY

demand, construction activity, auto sales and credit growth - with the former 12 (% YoY)

two indicators helped by unfavourable weather in vase. The improving 108

geopolitical situation should now no longer drag the activity and support 4

2the INR.; though a weak start to the monsoon season could temper Middle

East reopening gains and become a food inflation worry. 0 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26

Jefferies Economic Indicator (% YoY)

. 3 per. Mov. Avg. (Jefferies Economic Indicator (% YoY))

JEI resilient in May. Our economy tracker indicator - JEI (based on 35 indicators' monthly Source: Jefferies

data) - shows growth in May was -0.5ppt MoM to 6.1% YoY, in line with avg of the prior 3-mths. Exhibit 2 - Credit and deposit growth trend for

The economic activity has remained broadly stable during the Middle East conflict months; banks

and with an ongoing improvement here will come as a relief for India - particularly on Energy 20%18% (YoY) 17.7%

availability. 16%14%12% 12.2%

10%

6% Credit growth hasPower demand improves within Broad-based indicators. Electricity demand was key positive, 8% 4% picked up

growing 11% YoY in May'26 accelerating sharply by +8ppt from April, with demand up +6% you 2%0%

in Jun also so far. Port traffic growth improved to 4% yoy (+2ppt MoM).