Brazil | The State of Disruption; Another Quarter, Another Check-In

Research evidence excerpt

Brazil | The State of Disruption; Another Quarter, Another Check-In

Latin America | Banks EquityJuneResearch22, 2026

Exhibit 1 - Brazil: TOP 5 incumbents MS inBrazil | The State of Disruption; Another Quarter,

selected credit products, %

90.0%Another Check-In

80.0%

Digital banks continued to gain share in key retail lending products in early 70.0%

2026, adding 90bps in share (o/w 80bps was lost by the largest incumbents). 60.0%50.0%

40.0%The key debate among investors remains whether these share gains reflect

excessive risk-taking. Our analysis suggests the dynamic is increasingly a zero- 30.0%20.0%

sum game, rather than the big expansion seen in 2022/23. Supporting this view, 10.0%

0.0%CC/personal loans at low-income borrowers are growing just 4% y/y. 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Q3 25 Q4 25 Q1 26

Personal Cards Payroll

.

Source: Jefferies, BACEN.

Credit cards – Digital banks keep taking share (+130bps) | Digital players expanded their share

from 23.9% in Dec-25 to 25.2% in Mar-26 (+130bps), after gaining 360bps in FY25. Most of these Exhibit 2 - Brazil: Number of borrowers per FI

gains came at the expense of the top five incumbents (-100bps). Nubank led the expansion (m)

(+70bps), while Mercado Pago added 40bps and entered the top six players in Brazil’s credit card NubankBank Jun-2560.1 Sep-2562.2 Dec-2563.8 Mar-2665.1

industry. See Exhibits 6 and 7 ItauBradescoUnibanco 48.235.0 48.235.0 47.235.2 47.535.5

Banco do Brasil 32.7 33.2 33.3 33.6

Personal loans – Nubank widens its lead | Nubank further cemented its leadership in personal CaixaSantander 24.923.0 25.122.7 27.322.4 26.922.1

loans, a position it first reached in 4Q25, gaining an additional 110bps of market share during the MercadoPicpay Pago 12.88.8 14.29.0 14.410.2 15.611.2

quarter to reach 15.3%.