LLY: Takeaways from Pre-Q2 Sellside Call

Research evidence excerpt

LLY: Takeaways from Pre-Q2 Sellside Call

out market expansion and driving Pro-forma

penetration growth as opposed to rapid share uptake. Ex.US mix remains ~75% DTC and ~25%

reimbursed. China NRDL reimbursement became effective Jan 1 which was a sizable price

step-down w/ a large volume increase, and mgmt. expects that dynamic will persist throughout

the rest of the year despite the new regulation for injectables on the e-commerce platforms. In

India, generic sema has expanded the low-cost market without slowing the branded Mounjaro

growth, supporting a bifurcated market thesis between price-sensitive generic users and

premium patients who prefer branded products.

Medicare GLP-1 Bridge program: The bridge program goes live July 1 and will be administered•

by Humana as a 3rd party. Mgmt does not expect major administrative friction but expects

normal ramp dynamics, e.g. time for seniors to get prescriptions/access/appointments. IQVIA

should capture bridge volume if dispensed through retail and is expected to be reflected in the

KwikPen trajectory. Mgmt. noated that pts can be grandfathered in based on baseline weight,

allowing DTC pts who lost weight to transition to Medicare coverage without being disqualified Akash Tewari * | Equity Analyst

by current the BMI. 1 (212) 284-3416 | atewari@jefferies.com

Orfo launch: FDA approval in early April w/ physician promotion began mid-April and sampling +1 (332) 236-6802 | ali8@jefferies.com• Amy Li, PharmD * | Equity Analyst

began in May. Full commercial access across the 3 major PBMs was effective June 1. Mgmt

Phoebe Tan * | Equity Associate

noted awareness is improving, but it is still too early to assess the pull through and expects +1 (212) 778-8356 | ptan1@jefferies.com