Global Ag Tracker - June 26 - Weaker Sentiment and Farmer Economics

Research evidence excerpt

Global Ag Tracker - June 26 - Weaker Sentiment and Farmer Economics

Global | Chemicals EquityJuneResearch23, 2026

Exhibit 1 - Corn, Soy, Wheat Farmer NetGlobal Ag Tracker - June 26 - Weaker

Incomes

50%Sentiment and Farmer Economics 40%30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%Jefferies covers c.$300bn in market cap across global Ag inputs. Our Global -20%

-30%

-40%Tracker provides an overview of SPP, earnings, & end-market momentum -50% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026F 2027F

CSW Average Price Change (%) Average net profit margin (%) - ex Labour opp cost

Soy farmer net profit margin (%) - ex labour opp cost Corn farmer net profit margin (%) - ex labour opp cost(farmer incomes, sentiment, WASDE stocks-to-use, & spreads). Nitrogen . Wheat farmer net profit margin (%) - ex labour opp cost

pricing continues to retreat as weak demand drives ongoing deflation Source: USDA, Factset, Bloomberg, Jefferies Research

despite c.30% of supply remaining absent from export markets. Potash Exhibit 2 - US Ag Economy Barometer Index

180prices are easing in Brazil, with buyer resistance building and peak-season 160

140demand largely covered. 120

Farmer Sentiment Softens as Conditions Deteriorate: Farmer sentiment edged lower in May, 60 May-16 Nov-16 May-17 Nov-17 May-18 Nov-18 May-19 Nov-19 May-20 Nov-20 May-21 Nov-21 May-22 Nov-22 May-23 Nov-23 May-24 Nov-24 May-25 Nov-25 May-26

with the Ag Economy Barometer declining from 121 to 119. The weakness was driven by a . US Ag Economy Barometer

sharp 8-point drop in the Current Conditions Index (now at its lowest since December 2024), Source:AgricultureJefferies Research, Purdue Center for Commercial

while the Future Expectations Index saw only a modest 1-point uptick. Concerns around