Applovin (APP.O): Axon Week 25 Update: Store Count Falls, Driven by Hong Kong Decline

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Applovin (APP.O): Axon Week 25 Update: Store Count Falls, Driven by Hong Kong Decline

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22 Jun 2026 07:00:00 ET │ 16 pages

Applovin (APP.O)

Axon Week 25 Update: Store Count Falls, Driven by Hong Kong Decline

CITI'S TAKE

Through June 19th (Week 25), Store Leads suggests AppLovin has 10,282

eCommerce clients, a 2% decline from 10,469 last week. The decline was

largely driven by a decrease in Hong Kong stores, which fell 13% from 1,886 Buy

to 1,647. Store count in other markets remained roughly flat. We believe this Price (18 Jun 26 16:00) US$469.71

week’s decline in eCommerce clients reflects a one-off issue rather than

Target price US$710.00churn. We continue to believe Axon is seeing low churn rates.

Expected share price return 51.2%

eCommerce Store Count Falls — As of June 19th, Store Leads suggests Axon has Expected dividend yield 0.0%

10,282 customers, a ~2% decrease from 10,469 as of June 12th. QTD average weekly Expected total return 51.2%

store growth decelerated from 3.1% in 1Q26 to 2.3% in 2Q26. Extrapolating these

trends, we’d expect an average store count of ~9.7K in 2Q26. Market Cap US$157,794M

Likely a One-Off — Given the magnitude of the decline, we believe this week’s data

reflects a one-off issue rather than churn. Recall, we have seen two instances of

possible one-off data adjustments in the past: 1) On January 2nd, Store Leads data Price Performance

suggested a 5% WoW decrease in store count. However, the store count has grown (RIC: APP.O, BB: APP US)

weekly since then (until this week). 2) On February 6, Store Leads data indicated an

improvement of ~170 spots in average store rank in a single week. This likely

reflected a change in ranking methodology.

Geographic Mix: Less Hong Kong — As of June 19th, 59.4% of Shopify customers