North America Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals: Company-Specific Dynamics to Outweigh Macro; 2Q26 Ag Chems Preview

Research evidence excerpt

North America Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals: Company-Specific Dynamics to Outweigh Macro; 2Q26 Ag Chems Preview

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22 Jun 2026 05:00:00 ET │ 20 pages

North America Fertilizers &

Agricultural Chemicals

Company-Specific Dynamics to Outweigh Macro; 2Q26 Ag Chems

Preview Patrick Cunningham AC +1-212-816-6684

patrick.cunningham@citi.com

CITI'S TAKE

Rachel Lee

Soybean futures are now trading at pre-conflict levels while corn futures +1-212-816-4559

have been pulled down to YTD lows as the market prices in lower crude and rachel.lee@citi.com

conflict resolution. With one key upside risk to commodity prices essentially

removed, the focus on the ag market now turns to the potential Alexander Yi

development of a “super El Nino” later this year and possible extreme +1-212-816-4220

weather events. For both CTVA and FMC, 2Q is most likely to be tracking alexander.yi@citi.com

expectations and there could be modest upside to 2H numbers with a

smaller than expected freight/logistics cost headwind. What likely matters

more for CTVA than the quarter itself is better visibility on post-split capital

structures for Vylor & New Corteva. For FMC, investors are focusing on its

de-leveraging trajectory and active ingredient growth potential.

Corn/Soy Prices Drifted Lower Since the ME Conflict — Despite corn futures briefly

touching $5/bu levels in early May, they have traded lower to ~$4.4/bu even as

NOAA officially confirmed El Nino has already formed and there could be a ~63%

chance of a “very strong” El Nino event into late fall/early winter. We view subdued

price levels were primarily caused by strong record production levels in NAM and

LatAm, as well as fertilizer prices starting to roll over. USDA now estimates Brazil will