Toyota Motor

Research evidence excerpt

Toyota Motor

) (¥)

company guidance (¥1.38trn), we exclude tariffs on components currently in

From To % ch Cons.

negotiation with suppliers (Figure 3). Our forecasts reflect intensified competition in the 03/27E 288.1 290.8 1 306.5

US, lower costs, the scheduled updating of production lines due to full model changes 03/28E 385.0 390.7 1 345.7

for the Highlander, Grand Highlander and Lexus ES, as well as the launch of BEV models, 03/29E 455.4 460.6 1 378.1

and yoy declines in production and shipment volumes in Q2-Q3 due to supply

constraints, which we now factor in as a negative versus our previous forecast. In Kohei Takahashi

FY3/28, when supply constraints are expected to be resolved, we forecast shipment Analyst

kohei.takahashi@ubs.com

volumes rising 3% yoy (Figure 14), with OP of ¥5.1trn (with the highly profitable value

+81-3-5208 6172

chain business accounting for ¥2.5trn) (Figures 1-2). We expect the OP margin to

recover to over 9% in FY3/28, with sustained growth likely to continue. Mao Eguchi

Associate Analyst

mao.eguchi@ubs.com

Forecasting Q1 FY3/27 OP of just over ¥1.1trn

+81-3-5208 6242

We forecast Q1 FY3/27 shipment volume of 2.4mn units (-1% yoy) and OP of ¥1.14trn

(-2% yoy). Although sales to the Middle East are declining, we expect supply constraints

to persist as trends in other regions remain strong, with yen depreciation also acting as a

positive factor yoy. We also see the possibility of an upward revision to FY3/27 guidance.

Valuation: Price target of ¥3,900 (unchanged)

Our price target is based on a FY3/28E PER of 10X (unchanged). For FY3/28E, both OP

and EPS have been revised by less than 5%.

Highlights (¥b) 03/24 03/25 03/26 03/27E 03/28E 03/29E 03/30E 03/31E

Revenues 45,095.3 48,036.7 50,685.0 53,379.1 54,903.7 55,999.0 56,956.9 57,949.0