Coal: China normalisation accelerating: First Changzhi/Qinyuan mine restarts

Research evidence excerpt

Coal: China normalisation accelerating: First Changzhi/Qinyuan mine restarts

Global Research

18 June 2026ab

Coal Equities

GlobalChina normalisation accelerating: First Changzhi/

Qinyuan mine restarts Basic Materials

Myles Allsop

Analyst

myles.allsop@ubs.com

China mine restarts moving quicker than prior expectations +44-20-7568 1693

The near-term outlook for met-coal had improved with safety inspections in China after Daniel Major

the 22-May accident resulting in supply disruption & higher domestic met-coal/ coke Analyst

prices; last week the China domestic met-coal price lifted above import parity, increasing daniel.major@ubs.com

the potential for stronger seaborne demand/ prices. +44-20-7568 3472

George Eadie

However, market sentiment is turning more bearish, with China futures prices now Analyst

reverting to pre-accident levels and down 6% on Thursday following the restart of one george.eadie@ubs.com

coal mine (~1.5mt raw coking capacity) in Qinyuan (where the accident happened); this +1-646-996 4596

was the focus area of the inspections with 22-24 mines stopped since the May incident. Sharon Ding

The market had expected a slower recovery in Qinyuan with mines restarting in Jul/Aug; Analyst

this update suggests a faster normalisation of supply in China. June marks the end of sharon.ding@ubs.com

China’s National Work Safety Month, which has seen a focus on workplace safety and +852-2971 6284

accident management. Seaborne met coal prices have been stable ~$240/t on limited Elvis Liu

activity since the accident; in our opinion, the risk of higher prices near-term from Associate Analyst

stronger Chinese demand is diminishing with domestic supply starting to recover. elvis.liu@ubs.com

+852-3712 3052

What is the latest on met demand in China? Amy Yi Li