N.A. Chems & Pkg’g Fun with Fertilizers

Research evidence excerpt

N.A. Chems & Pkg’g Fun with Fertilizers

Powered by Lab Global17 JuneResearch2026ab Evidence UBS YES

N.A. Chems & Pkg’g Equities

North AmericaFun with Fertilizers

Chemicals, Commodity

Lucas Beaumont

Fun with Fertilizers Highlights Analyst

Review of NPK pricing: We review the latest NPK pricing trends below, within lucas.beaumont@ubs.com

we provide our current price deck (Fig 1) and comparison of estimates vs. cons. (Fig +1-212-713 4809

2), as well as a comp table for UBS’ Fertilizer/Ag coverage (3). Joshua Spector, CFA

Analyst

Nitrogen: QTD pricing trends have been broadly weaker relative to our 2Q joshua.spector@ubs.com

estimates (negative for NTR, CF, & LXU). Ammonia pricing is tracking slightly below +1-212-713 6188

UBSe, and urea pricing is trending at least ~$100/MT below our prior estimates.

Nicole Grueneberg

Meanwhile, UAN pricing has outperformed expectations and is likely to come in at

Associate Analyst

least ~$25/MT above our estimates, but it is uncertain how much of this upside nicole.grueneberg@ubs.com

will be realized at the producer level given weaker demand conditions. The sharper +1-212-713-2469

decline in urea reflects the market moving past peak seasonal tightness, raising the

Christopher Perrella

risk of additional pricing pressure into 3Q as demand has dried up ahead of further

expected pricing declines. We continue to believe structurally tight supply will christopher.perrella@ubs.com

support pricing at a premium to the cost curve in 2H26/2027, but now see this as +1-212-713 1443

much more moderate than our earlier expectations and expect a more typical

Anojja Shah

seasonal pricing decline into 3Q. Physical market flows from the Middle East will

take several months to improve, even if the peace agreement is effective, and anojja.shah@ubs.com