LatAm Oil Weekly Monitor: The Navigator - US-Iran peace deal in focus

Research evidence excerpt

LatAm Oil Weekly Monitor: The Navigator - US-Iran peace deal in focus

Global Research

19 June 2026ab

LatAm Oil Weekly Monitor Equities

Latin AmericaThe Navigator - US-Iran peace deal in focus

Energy

Tasso Vasconcellos

See this week’s key highlights across our coverage: Analyst

LatAm O&G - US-Iran peace deal implications for LatAm upstream: We tasso.vasconcellos@ubs.com

maintain our base case of Brent gradually declining toward cUS$80/bbl by +55-11-2767 6683

2027, leaving our investment thesis broadly unchanged despite recent Joao Barichello

volatility. Within our coverage, we continue to prefer PRIO and PETR as the Associate Analyst

best-positioned names to capture upside, given current market pricing (cUS joao-pedro.barichello@ubs.com

$65–70/bbl), while also offering downside support through stronger balance +55-11-2767 6364

sheets and low breakevens. We still prefer PRIO given lower political risk,

while PETR provides higher beta to Brent in the current environment.

Fuel Dist. - We reiterated our Buy on Ultrapar and upgraded VBBR to Buy,

from Neutral: Supported by stronger than expected margins (cR$250–300/m3

vs prior cR$200/m³), which we expect to remain elevated through 1H26 and

normalize toward cR$200/m3 thereafter, while the market seems to be pricing

in cR$160/m3. Despite improved fundamentals, Ultrapar and Vibra are down

-20%/-15% from peaks and trade at c5x EV/EBITDA vs our 6.5x fair value,

implying attractive upside, with Ultrapar remaining our preferred name given

its diversified exposure and sharper de-rating.

Brazil O&G - Potential reduction on the fuel subsidies and on the 12%

export tax rate: We believe it’s still too early to access the next steps, given

the high volatility in the global dynamics. Any decision taken by the